Plusnet Predictions for 2012
For the last few years we've posted tech predictions for the coming year, unfortunately last year this was missed but that means we can review Dan's predictions for 2010 with 2 years of hindsight at the end but first my predictions for 2012.
- Apple to launch a television, lots of people have been predicting this after a comment in Steve Jobs' biography but my prediction is that not only will Apple launch a television, it will be 3D with Siri and a remote control on iPhone and iPad which also serves as a second TV screen, EPG and social networking app but they will also call it the iTV and buy ITV.
- There's a content war starting, we've seen Netflix and Lovefilm doing lots of advertising and big offers to get subscribers and Sky are about to get even deeper in the mix with their Anytime+ service arriving on all SkyHD boxes this Easter. By the end of the year Netflix, Lovefilm and Sky Anytime+ will do at least as much traffic as YouTube on an average evening.
- Assuming it comes out this year Grand Theft Auto V will be the biggest selling computer game ever.
- The Wii U will be the best selling Christmas toy. Nintendo are going to be first to market with the 8th generation console and the Wii was the biggest selling 7th generation console so the Wii U stands in good stead to sell well if it's out in time for Christmas. When the Wii first came out you couldn't buy one for love nor money in the days and weeks leading up to Christmas.
- YouView will finally launch this year. A little later than originally planned, the setup box will finally land on shop shelves this year offering Freeview, catch-up TV and a PVR. We're already expecting third parties to create apps to add even content on it.
- Cloud based gaming will take off in 2012. OnLive launched last year and Gaikai have a very impressive demo service. We'll see big take up of services like this in 2012.
- A spinoff or prequel of Lost will commissioned, probably for broadcast in 2013
- The world will not end in 2012. Of course if it does no-one will be able to tell me I'm wrong.
- Jenson Button will be F1 World Champion in what will be the will be the most watched F1 season on the Internet not only thanks to Sky Go but also because will go out of their way to get the best out of the coverage with apps, in-car cameras, timings, car trackers, interviews and more all online.
- Following some of the Olympics being filmed in Super HD and the new iPad with it's resolution of 2048 x 1536, laptop, desktop, mobile and tablet manufacturers will be falling over themselves to create displays with ever more pixels. By the end of the year we will see 15" displays with over 3000 x 2000 pixels.
And one last fun prediction, someone will create a Siri clone with the voice of Majel Barrett-Roddenberry and put it on Dan's digital wallpaper. So let's see how Dan scored.
- e-readers/ebooks/Kindles will be a flop in their current guise - FAIL
they seem to be doing pretty well, I see plenty of people with a Kindle on the trains and the apps on are on phones and tablets too. 0/10 - The ingenious Powermats will be superceded by wireless and contactless electricity adaptors. - I saw an advert for one once but I've never actually seen one. 0/10.
- Laser Pico Projectors, however, have a brighter future and will be commercially available this year, well looks like I can buy one so that gives Dan 1/10.
- Blu-ray discs will start to be threatened by SD cards (and their ilk) - still Blu-ray and DVD or downloads/streaming dominating the market. Don't think that one is going to happen, question is, will Blu-ray be the last physical medium for selling TV and film or will something else come along or will it all be become downloads? 1/10.
- Perhaps the most exciting innovation to reach its potential this year is Augmented Reality - Dan's predictions for games wasn't too far off the mark, AR has been used in things like the Microsoft Kinnect and PS Move. 2/10.
- However, the talk of 2010 will certainly be Google’s Chrome OS. I actually don’t think it will take off incredibly well this year but it will do within the next three years... Better news for Google’s OSs this year will be that Android will make serious inroads to Apple’s monopoly and will become the second most popular mobile operating system by the year end - think that deserves a full point, the Chromebook is out, but hasn't shifted that many, but Android has the largest market share in the mobile market. 3/10.
- I’m hoping Apple haven’t announced anything before I manage to finish writing this post, but get ready for the iSlate, or whatever they decide to call it. Apple WILL be releasing a tablet PC and if it’s anything like most other things Apple, it will be more stylish than its competitors. - easy point 4/10.
- Speaking of Apple, I predict they will be building a new internet-ready red box for the Chancellor. I think they will be calling it the iBrows, but they will be breaking with tradition by only offering it in one colour. - Sadly not 4/10.
- I predict you will see 3D phones come out in the next 5 years - The LG Optimus and HTC Evo are both 3D 5/10.
- Twitter will support audio micro blogging. - I've seen posts from people that have got Siri to do it on an iPhone, so call it 5.5/10.
One final prediction, but one for my yet-to-be-conceived grandchildren, is that within 15 years, you will be able to buy digital wallpaper. - I think Charlie Brooker agrees watching an episode of Dark Mirror last year. 5.5 out of 10, not too shabby Dan. For those that don't know Dan is currently running the equivalent of 4 marathons in 4 days and is aiming to raise over £1000 for each of The Multiple Sclerosis Trust and The Children's Hospital Charity. Feel free to post your own predictions for the year and we'll come back at the beginning of 2013 to review how we did and please support Dan on his home leg back to Sheffield tomorrow. Dave Tomlinson Plusnet Product Team